Cold War 2.0 or World War III: What Was He Thinking?
What Happened?
Over the past week, Russia invaded Ukraine and started a war that has caused death, misery and led to irreparable consequences for the people of Ukraine. Hundreds of civilians have been killed by the unprovoked aggression and shelling caused by Russian invasion. More than a million people have been evacuated and are now taking refuge in neighboring countries. Hundreds of foreign students have been sent back to their home countries. The missile strikes and air strikes have wreaked havoc on the nation. Hundreds of thousands of people have been moved to bomb shelters before they have been able to safely leave the country for safe refuge.
While the Ukrainians have surprised the entire world in the way they have defended their motherland and in the way they have been able to withstand the shelling and bombardment of their nation, how did the war start? What happened?
The reasons provided in this article are merely my opinion that may have been extrapolated from certain facts.
Rise of Separatist Groups
In the recent past, we have seen the rise of separatist rebel groups in Ukraine, that has created unrest and started causing security concerns for Russia. The rise of Taliban and other rebel groups in Afghanistan and regions of North Africa have caused similar concerns. United States invaded Afghanistan due to similar concerns with a mission to suppress the rise of Taliban and separatist groups and enforce peace in the region. In a recent video, Putin cited security concerns and compared the Ukrainians to the likes of Nazis.
He may have been following in the steps of United States when invading Ukraine, however, the entire mission seems to have backfired on Putin. While the war in Afghanistan has been heralded by the world and exit of the United States heavily criticized, the war in Ukraine has had the exact opposite reaction. Why is it that we see such contrasting differences in the way the world reacted to the bullying of lesser powers by the major superpowers? You can almost imagine Putin discussing with his general of defense, “What the hell, when the US does it, they are the heroes who save the nation and when I do it, I am a monster!” To understand the differences in reaction, we would have to go back in time to the Cold War.
To understand the present, you need to look at the past.
Cold War and Isolation of Russia
The Cold War stretched on for decades, resulting in the break-up of Soviet Union and isolation of Russia from the rest of the world. While the western powers have gained in power and made tremendous strides in the fields of science, technology, aerospace and defence, we don’t know too much about the advancement in Russia.
However, we know enough to know that Russia, while polarized from the rest of the world, has built on its strengths and formed its own alliances in the region and can match United States in warfare, both online and on the ground. Isolation affects minds in various ways. The two of years of social distancing during the Pandemic has manifested in various ways and it has affected millions of people both physically and psychologically. If two years of isolation can have deleterious effects on your state of mind, how does half a century’s isolation affect a person’s mind?
Solitude vivifies. Isolation kills.
— Joseph Roux
Imposed Sanctions
My heart breaks reading about the senseless deaths of military and civilian personnel, seeing images of the suffering that is currently ongoing in Ukraine and hearing about the displacement of millions of people from their homeland, navigating in unknown territories, trying to start and build their lives again.
Severe economic sanctions have been imposed on Russian and Russian nationals, crippling their economy, and decapitating Russian trade sector. Several Russians have been banned in national and international events, several Russian assets frozen and their supply chain has been suspended indefinitely.
However, given the history, I have to wonder if the imposed sanctions ended up fueling the Ukraine crisis and if it will further escalate the terror level in that region. The reports of the invasion already have the semblance of Cold War 2.0.
We have seen the nations of the world separated into two groups.Leading economies such as China and India, while not actively supporting Russia, abstained from voting for the imposed sanctions on Russia at UNGA. India has maintained diplomatic relationships with Russia, depending on Russia heavily for defence supplies.
Additionally, the security concerns raised by Russia regarding Ukraine have several similarities to the tension in Kashmir, that has persisted for decades and has similarly led to deaths of several hundreds of thousands of families.
We can also draw parallels with the China-Taiwan issue. While China has successfully prevented escalation of tensions in Taiwan, it has maintained control over Taiwan and thwarted any efforts by the Taiwanese to be independent. Faced with similar concerns has brought India, China and Russia into a single brotherhood.
We all came in on different ships but we’re all on the same boat now.
- Martin Luther King Jr.
Given the fact that Russia has taken over Chernobyl and has amassed several nuclear weapons, caution should be exercised so as to not escalate matters and increase the risk of a potential nuclear war. The alignment of leading eastern and western powers into two different camps is already a cause of major concern.
It begs the question, instead of resorting to violence, was there no other diplomatic way in which Russia could have secured the region and similarly, shouldn’t the western powers be more cautious about imposing sanctions and further isolating Russia?
While the superpowers play with their toys in the Hunger Games in the quest for power, it is the people who suffer. We have seen very similar situations arise because of the War in Afghanistan and now the War in Ukraine.
The Irony
Post World War II, we saw millions of people seeking refuge in the Western European countries, and to some extent in the United States. Over the decades, while there have been several efforts to integrate communities, at times, it is difficult to amalgamate highly distinct communities. Especially, when they have been displaced from their homelands against their wishes and have immigrated as refugees under dire conditions.
And hence, over the past decade, we have seen a rise in nationalistic feelings across several nations of the world, especially in countries, who have in the past, welcomed immigrants. Ironically, in the present war, we see the refugees who once took refuge in other Western European countries welcoming and accepting Ukrainian refugees. I believe that the shared experiences of the people of these host nations would allow them to better understand the sufferings of the Ukrainian refugees and allow for better integration of Ukrainians.
The day the power of love overrules the love of power, the world will know peace.
- Mahatma Gandhi
